連関資料 :: Global Warming
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Is global warming real?
- Is Global Warming for Real? J. C. Sprott Department of Physics University of Wisconsin - Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar In Madison, Wisconsin On January 17, 2006 Entire presentation available on WWW Some Evidence From Recent Seminars Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay) Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson) 782,000 years 150 years Prediction Methods Extrapolation methods Simple extrapolation Moving average Trends Linear methods Simple regression Autoregression All poles method Nonlinear methods Method of analogs Artificial neural network Simple Extrapolation Order = 0 1 2 3 Fit the last few points to a polynomial Moving Average Lags = 0 1 2 3 Average some number of previous points Trends Lags = 0 1 2 Follow the trend of some number of previous points Linear Regression Order = 0 1 2 Fit a polynomial to the entire data set 3 Autoregression Order = 0 2 4 xt = a0 + a1xt-1 + a2xt-2 + … All Poles Method Poles = 0 2 4 Assume a sum of poles in the complex plane 1 Method of Analogs Lags = 0 2 Find the closest similar previous sequence 1 Artificial Neural Network Lags = 3 xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3] tanh x x D aij N bi 6 neurons Artificial Neural Network Lags = 3 xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3] 6 neurons Artificial Neural Network Lags = 4 xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai4xt-4] 6 neurons Artificial Neural Network Lags = 9 xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai9xt-9] 6 neurons This year: 26 days
- global warming Bush
全体公開 2007/12/26- 閲覧(1,858)
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The Cause of Global Warming
- What causes global warming? You do,silly! Kevin Cummins Sierra Club Volunteer Increases in carbon dioxide cause the earth to get warmer Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) (plus other gases like methane) in the atmosphere absorb heat radiating from the earth. This trapped heat increases the evaporation of water from the oceans into the air to cause a greater increase in warming of the atmosphere. CO2 has a forcing effect on climate. The combined effect of water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane controls the temperature of the earth. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere plays a key role in making our planet liveable. It allows sun light to pass through the atmosphere and warm the earth. It also traps or absorbs some of the heat which radiates from the earth back into space. The warming effect caused by carbon dioxide absorbing the radiant heat from the earth causes water vapor to evaporate from the earth. The water vapor in the atmosphere absorbs even more radiant heat than the carbon dioxide which helps make our planet liveable. This thin layer of atmosphere thus acts as a “blanket” to make the planet earth liveable Source: OSTP The Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming Greenhouse Analogy: Anyone who has visited a greenhouse for growing plants or sat in a parked car with the windows closed on a warm summer day has experienced the principle behind global warming. The sunlight goes through the glass and the heat is trapped inside. The gases in the atmosphere surroundi
- cause global warming
- 全体公開 2007/12/26
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Global Warming - Greenhouse Gases and Climate
- Global Warming Greenhouse Gases and Climate Is the climate becoming warmer and warmer? According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases – primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them. (source:US-EPA) Global temperature trend Note that these are surface temperatures and mostly overland. The temperature in upper levels may be different, even reversed. Source: UK Met Office What cause the temperature of the atmosphere to go up? There are many possible mechanisms that can cause the warming of the atmosphere, for example: Natural variation – the climate becomes warmer by internal chaotic dynamics of the earth-atmosphere system (that is, no external influence). Solar activity – either direct increase of solar energy output or indirect “trigger” mechanisms due to solar activity (though nobody knows how) may cause the surface temperature to go up. Greenhouse effect – increasing “greenhouse” gases such as CO2, CH4, NO, CFC,…etc. (actually H2O is very efficient, too, but at
- global warming greenhouse gas climate
- 全体公開 2007/12/26
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Global Warming: One Scientist’s View
- Global Warming 101 Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama In Huntsville 19 March 2007 “Global Warming” (at least since 1920) is Real… But how unusual is it? How much of it is natural versus man-made? Data source: J. Hansen/ GISS “Little Ice Age” McIntyre-McKitrick, 2003 The famous Mann et al. “Hockey Stick” had errors in statistical analysis methods. (A National Academies Review Panel [July 2006] changed the Hockey Stick conclusion from “warmest in 1,000 years” to “warmest in 400 years”) The GRIP (Greenland) borehole record is one of the best records because it is not a proxy, it is a DIRECT measure of temperature. Shown are the last 2000 years. (Dahl-Jensen et al. 1998, Science, 282, 268-271 "Past Temperatures Directly the Greenland Ice Sheet"). A similar reconstruction occurs for the Ural Mountain borehole temperatures (i.e. warmer 1000 years ago, Bemeshko, D., V.A. Schapov, Global and Planetary Change, 2001. We are probably not as warm as during Medieval Warm Period Incoming Sunlight Emitted Infrared Radiation = GLOBAL WARMING BASICS: “Radiative Energy Balance” (= const. Temp.) => Greenhouse gases affect Infrared Radiation Global average input = output = ≈235 Watts per square meter Climate Modelers tend view the Earth’s average temperature as being “caused by” radiation balance… …but we really don’t know what natural processes keep the balance around 235 Watts/m2 …. …we don’t even know whether it is 234, or 235 or 236 Watts
- global warming view
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So you want to slow global warming?
- So you want to slow global warming? Tim Garrett Assistant Professor Department of Meteorology University of Utah Combustion makes the world go round Fossil fuels + Oxygen give us water vapor + carbon dioxide + ENERGY How much energy? About 400,000,000,000,000,000,000 J Energy makes our world Transportation of people and goods Manufacturing of goods Construction of buildings and roads Production and transportation of food Even production and maintenance of people Without today’s energy production
- global warming
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Top Ten Things to Know About Global Warming
- www.uwsp.edu Top Ten Things to Know About Global Warming Number Ten There is a scientific consensus that human activities are very likely to affect global climate Number Nine There is some chance that, due to the uncertainties of complex models and the assumptions used to drive them, the consensus is wrong. Numb
- global warming
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How Can the Earth Suffer through the Global Warming?
- The word “global warming” is heard very often these days all over the world. This is one of the difficult global issues to find the solution. The atmosphere’s rising temperature is caused by the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs when certain kinds of gas such as carbon dioxide and Freon in the atmosphere increases and warms up the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect was basically caused by human social activities. Human beings have developed their technology in the 20th century. Especially, industrialization of the last few decades has been so great that people’s life became very convenient. On the other hand, human beings have not noticed the negative aspects of industrialization until recently.
- レポート 地球温暖化 温室効果 Cause Effect Essay
550 販売中 2006/01/22- 閲覧(1,430)
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Ten Things to Do To Help Stop Global Warming
- Ten Things to Do To Help Stop Global Warming (as suggested by www.climatecrisis.net) Change a light. Replacing one regular light bulb with a compact fluorescent light will save 150 pounds of carbon dioxide per year. Drive less. Walk, bike, carpool, or take metro transit more often. You’ll sav
- global warming
- 全体公開 2008/12/10
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Global Warming: Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?
- Global Warming Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World? By Rich Deem www.GodAndScience.org Note: This slideshow is NOT meant to be printed. View in slideshow mode only because of extensive builds and animations. Go to the website for a printable copy. Requires PowerPoint 2003 or PowerPoint Viewer 2003. Click Here for a PowerPoint Presentation with Narration (http://godandscience.org/ppt/global_warming_narration.ppt) This slideshow present an overview of global warming issues, last updated 8/11/2006. A more detailed analysis of global warming issues is available at http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/global_warming.html, including a printable PDF version. Auto-run with narration at http://godandscience.org/ppt/global_warming_narration.ppt Introduction Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them? In examining global warming, we will be looking at questions such as Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases? What can or should be done about global warming? Are the potential resolutions to global warming worth the cost to implement them? History of Earth’s Climate Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Sun’s energy output only 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) Much
- global warming
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